‘Not decoupling’: what US-China trade data signals ahead of Xi-Trump summit
Declining trade flows come as Trump heads to Beijing – but analyst says US remains dependent on some Chinese goods China’s merchandise exports to the US fell 10.2 per cent year on year to US$133.4 billion in the first four months of 2026, according to data released on Saturday by the General Administration of Customs. Imports from the US also declined 10.9 per cent to US$45.8 billion over the same period, bringing the bilateral trade surplus to a cumulative US$87.7 billion for the year so far. In line with that, shipments to the US climbed 11.3 per cent year on year to US$36.8 billion last month, bucking the trend from January to March. Imports from the US also increased 9 per cent to US$13.7 billion, bringing China’s bilateral trade surplus to US$23.1 billion for April, up from US$16.8 billion the previous month. But recent US Commerce Department data showed that mainland China had fallen to the fourth-largest contributor to the US goods trade deficit after Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico – its lowest ranking since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. “Supply chains are diversifying, not decoupling,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis.
